Kentucky Derby hopefuls to cast aside
It is weird to say this year's Kentucky Derby could be the most evenly matched running in over three decades, especially when a 50-1 longshot has crossed the wire first on two occasions since 2005. However, there's a good chance the betting favorite could be no lower than 5-1 and the longest shot on the board might be below 30-1.
Given the recent defections of The Factor and J P's Gusto, there is also a lack of early speed in the 137th Kentucky Derby, maybe even more so if Uncle Mo gets withdrawn. As of now, the 2-year-old champion is scheduled to run May 7, particularly after working five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. That's not to say the colt is anywhere near his 2-year-old form, so there is a chance his connections could still keep him out of the running. More will be known after his second and final work before the Derby.
Assuming Uncle Mo enters the fray, Anthony's Cross, who is 21st on the list, will have to wait for the Preakness, and even if that colt makes the field, the odds of him winning the Derby are slim and none. The same can be said for seven of the probable 20 entrants.
Topping the list is Twinspired, the runner-up in Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes. Twinspired is improving at the right time, especially coming off the nose defeat to Brilliant Speed. Nevertheless, he's raced on conventional dirt just once, finishing eighth in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park last December. Furthermore, he has yet to face the type of horses he'll be up against in the Run for the Roses.
Twinspired will not be the longest price on the board. That distinction most likely will go to Watch Me Go, another of the seven toss-outs. The Kathleen O'Connell-trained colt has more wins (four) than every horse except for Uncle Mo, Comma to the Top and Toby's Corner. Still, the Florida-bred sports just one stakes victory and that came in the Tampa Bay Derby against one of the worst fields among the 2011 preps. Watch Me Go was 43-1 that afternoon and needed every ounce of steam to knock off 86-1 shot Crimson Knight. Since that effort, he was beaten 17 lengths as the 2-1 favorite in the Illinois Derby.
Twice the Appeal is a horse that would have been around 30-1 earlier in the week. However, he will now be in the low 20s after Calvin Borel was named to ride. This will be Borel's first appearance aboard Twice the Appeal, who comes into the big dance after winning the Sunland Derby. Ironically, that was the race Mine That Bird finished fourth prior to winning the Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1. It was also Borel's first time aboard Mine That Bird, so there are a lot of similarities between the two horses.
Twice the Appeal stormed past Astrology through the stretch to pull the upset in the Sunland Derby, but don't expect lightning to strike twice unless the Churchill Downs track comes up sloppy on May 7.
Two other colts that are up against it in the Kentucky Derby finished 1-2 in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. Animal Kingdom won the Grade III event by 2 3/4 lengths over Decisive Moment while needing 1:52 1/5 seconds to finish the nine furlongs.
His breathtaking move around the turn was visually impressive, but was he able to accomplish that move due to his overall ability or was it a by-product of the quick early pace? Don't forget, Positive Response ran a blistering 46 2/5 half-mile on a track that wasn't playing very fast. From that point forward, Animal Kingdom ran consecutive 25 3/5 and 26 quarters and was still able to get to the front. He does have a solid pedigree and the 1 1/4-mile distance will certainly not be a problem. However, he's not quick enough to be a factor.
Decisive Moment ran a bang-up second in the Spiral, the first test over nine furlongs for the speedy son of With Distinction. He's only been off the board once in his eight-race career and that came in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. He led for most of the early going, carving out slow fractions of 24 3/5 and 49 1/5 seconds before tiring badly through the stretch en route to a fifth-place finish.
Look for Decisive Moment to be among the early leaders when the field reaches the backstretch. He might even hold that position approaching the far turn. But from that point on, he will falter badly and finish either 19th or 20th. In fact, for those interested in betting which horse will finish last, my advice is to take Watch Me Go and Decisive Moment. In addition, it's best to wager a few dollars on Uncle Mo given all the medical concerns that have arisen this month.
TWO OTHERS TO WRITE OFF
Stay Thirsty was a $500,000 yearling purchase that has currently earned $300,000. He has two graded wins, one each as a 2-year-old and a 3-year-old. Still, he has raced nine furlongs just once and it was by far his worst performance to date - a seventh-place finish in the Florida Derby.
He might not have liked Gulfstream Park, but, then again, his second-worst career race came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which was run at Churchill Downs. Furthermore, despite his victory in the Gotham Stakes, he didn't look all that comfortable until the final sixteenth of a mile.
If this race were a furlong shorter, I would easily have Comma to the Top in my Top 10. Unfortunately, the final 220 yards will prove too much for the son of Bwana Charlie. After tiring badly in the San Felipe, Comma to the Top bounced back with a gritty second-place run in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, falling to win by just a head behind Midnight Interlude. Nevertheless, his pedigree, along with his running style, will preclude him from finishing in the top tier on the first Saturday in May.
Stay tuned next week for a rundown of the remaining 13 colts that have a chance to win the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby.
Horses That Can Win the Kentucky Derby
I have been watching the Kentucky Derby avidly for almost 30 years. In that time I don’t remember seeing a class as confounding and underwhelming as this one. Most years the problem is that there are so many exciting horses that choosing just one is all but impossible. This year the problem is that I’m not convinced that there is any horse good enough to win. There will be a winner though -- that much I know for sure.
Given the lack of clear stars in this class it’s hard to isolate some clear contenders. That won’t stop me from trying, though. Mine That Bird showed us that any horse can win this race, but some horses clearly are better prepared than others. Here are the seven horses that can win the Kentucky Derby in 2011:
Dialed In - He’s likely to be the favorite, but he’s not exactly a thrilling option. He’s coming off a win in the Florida Derby -- the race that produced Barbaro and Big Brown. There are all sorts of reasons to be skeptical, though. He has only run four times in his career -- fewer than would be ideal. He won three of those races, but the fourth was a flat performance in a race that should have been very easy for him. He hasn’t run in a big field, either. He’d probably run his best if there was speed that set a fast pace so he could come from the back and pick up the pieces, but convincing speed is hard to find in this field. Needless to say, I’m not convinced. Still, he’s won at this track, and trainer Nick Zito has won the race twice, so you can’t rule him out.
Uncle Mo - This one requires a leap of faith. Up until his last outing in the Wood Memorial the two year old champion was a lock to be the favorite in the Derby - and probably a heavy one. But then that race was a total disaster. He had the lead around the final turn but then slammed it in reverse and was passed twice. It subsequently came out that he had a gastrointestinal issue that caused some problems in the race. The lasting effects of that illness are a concern, and so is his ability to get the distance. Ultimately, though, I couldn’t have been more impressed by the horse last year, and I have to believe he still has some of that magic left in him. The good news is that the price on him will be much better here than it would have been if he had run his race in the Wood.
Nehro - He hasn’t won anything significant, but he has the distinction of being the fastest improving horse in a field of runners that seems to be moving backwards. He was a solid second in both the Louisiana Derby and the Arkansas Derby, and he’s bred to handle the distance well. Steve Asmussen is the real deal as a trainer as well. The more I look at him, the more I like him - and that really says something about the quality of this field.
Archarcharch - He has won three stakes races, and his best performance came in his last outing in the Arkansas Derby -- he had to go wide but still had enough in the tank at the end. I think he can get the distance, and he’s in solid form, so he can’t be ruled out. I’d feel better if his connections were more experienced on this stage, or if the Arkansas Derby hadn’t set up pretty much perfectly for him.
Toby’s Corner - He took advantage of Uncle Mo’s no-show to win the Wood. More impressive than that win, though, was how he got it -- he moved through a lot of traffic and closed hard for the win. That’s a running style that works well in the Derby, so he needs to be watched. He could provide nice value.
Mucho Macho Man - At first glance it’s a concern that he was only third in the Louisiana Derby last time out. When you consider that he lost a shoe right out of the gate, though, that result actually proves to be a pretty good sign of heart. Combine that with a whole lot of experience and he’s one to watch. The biggest concern, though, is his breeding -- sire Macho Uno was best at shorter distances, and it’s hard to believe this horse will have the stamina to handle the classic distance.
Midnight Interlude - He’s improving with every race, he won the Santa Anita Derby, and he’s trained by my all-time favorite trainer -- Bob Baffert -- so he’s a factor. There are a couple big concerns, though. The Santa Anita Derby was a huge step up in class for him, so this will be another big leap forward, and we can’t be sure he is ready for that -- especially because the field in that race was very underwhelming. More significantly, though, he didn’t race as a two year old. The last time a horse won the Derby without juvenile experience was 1882.
Doc’s Sports expert Kentucky Derby handicappers will have a full card of Kentucky Derby picks for the Run for the Roses on May 7. Doc’s has been putting in extra work this year handicapping the Kentucky Derby field and we expect a big payday on Saturday. Get all Doc’s Kentucky Derby predictions for just $20! Click Here to purchase.
http://www.docsports.com/2011/horses-that-can-win-kentucky-derby-276.html
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