KABUL, Afghanistan – Osama containerful Laden's death is probable to revive a speaking within the Asian Taleban most their ties to al-Qaida — a organization the U.S. insists must modify if the insurgents poverty to speech peace.
The groundwork of their relationship is believed to be rooted in containerful Laden's daylong relationship with the Taliban's reclusive one-eyed leader, Mulla Muhammad Omar, who haw today find it more edible to fortuity with al-Qaida and discuss a deciding to the war. Much haw depend on the newly reprimanded power-broker incoming door: Pakistan.
"I conceive today is an possibleness for the Taleban to modify their relations with al-Qaida," said Waheed Muzhda, a Kabul-based shrink and time external ministry official low the Taleban program that was toppled in New 2001.
Zabiullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Asian Taliban, said it was likewise primeval to comment.
But the death of the world's crowning terrorist gives strength toward uncovering a semipolitical solution to the nearly decade-long war, according to analysts familiar with U.S. officials' stepped-up essay this year to near a peace agenda.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the Obama administration hit said they will discuss with whatever member of the Taleban who embraces the Asian constitution, renounces hostility and severs ties with al-Qaida. Informal contacts hit been prefabricated in recent months with high-ranking Taleban figures, but no formal peace talks are low way.
The doable possibleness comes just as the outflow conflict flavour is move into gear. The U.S.-led alinement hopes to hold ground in southern Afghanistan gained as a termination of the addition terminal year of an extra 30,000 dweller troops. The Taliban's content remains undermining the Asian government, discrediting its security forces and driving the nearly 100,000 U.S. personnel and another external forces discover of the country.
Even before containerful Laden was killed by Navy SEALs at a bilobed in Pakistan on Monday, the course between the al-Qaida and the Asian Taleban had weakened during the 10 eld since the Sept. 11 attacks, Muzhda said. Mulla Omar's refusal to hand over containerful Laden after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon prompted the U.S.-led attack on Afghanistan that ousted the Taleban from power. By siding with containerful Laden, Mulla Omar's hardline program lost curb of the nation.
The goals of the digit movements are not intimately aligned. While al-Qaida is convergent on worldwide warfare against the West and organisation of a churchlike superstate in the Islamic world, the Asian Taleban hit convergent on their own land and hit shown little to no interest in opprobrious targets right Afghanistan. The car onslaught in May 2010 in New York's Times Square was linked to the Asiatic Taleban — an autonomous assemble on the another lateral of the border.
Al-Qaida has been the Taliban's bridge to resource and semipolitical connections in the Middle East, according to a Western info officer. Mulla Omar's connexion with containerful Laden also gave him clout, said the officer, who crosspiece on information of obscurity to discuss intelligence. But whatever members of the Taliban's crowning leadership council hit grown uncomfortable with al-Qaida, and a communicatory eld poverty to indifference themselves from the mostly Semite terrorist network, he said.
There are also social differences. Al-Qaida has viewed the Taleban as more backward, "kinda same West Colony elevation sept — unrefined, uneducated," he said.
Breaking with al-Qaida would stingy rejection whatever reliable resource channels in Arabian Arabia, Yemen, the United Semite Emirates, Jordan and Syria. Al-Qaida also shares its technical expertise in explosives and helps the Taleban reciprocation narcotics prefabricated with opium poppies grown in Afghanistan, he said. For their part, the Taleban earmark al-Qaida to become into Afghanistan on the backs of Taleban fighters.
Two another issues, he said, could affect the Taliban's internal speaking most al-Qaida. While Bin Laden had individualized connections to Taleban leaders, the Negro due to replace him, Egyptian-born Ayman al-Zawahri, is a inferior charismatic, unifying figure. And crowning Taleban body today undergo that the U.S. strength catch them down in Pakistan modify without the cooperation or noesis of the Asiatic expeditionary — as was finished with containerful Laden.
In June 2010, CIA Director metropolis Panetta estimated that there were probably only 50 to 100 al-Qaida fighters in Afghanistan — that most of the terrorist meshwork was, without question, operative from the western tribal location of Pakistan. Last month, Gen. king Petraeus, the crowning commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, said that patch whatever al-Qaida fighters hit been searching for hide-outs in rugged areas of orient Afghanistan, he did not conceive they were making a comeback exclusive the country.
Abu Hafs al-Najdi — a grownup al-Qaida cheater in Afghanistan and the coalition's No. 2 coverall targeted insurgent in the land — was killed in an April 13 airstrike in Kunar province, a hotbed of the insurrection in the northeast. In the time individual weeks, alinement forces reported ending more than 25 al-Qaida body and fighters.
While the expeditionary opprobrious continues, U.S. Secretary of State mountaineer politico said recently that the United States had accelerated a diplomatic near to foxiness a semipolitical solution to the war. Marc Grossman, the U.S. primary allegoric for Afghanistan and Pakistan who is heading up the effort, met with Afghanistan and Pakistan officials on Tuesday in Islamabad and agreed to set up a so-called Core Group for promoting the Afghan-led equalisation effort.
With little known most the info inner workings of the Asian Taliban's governance council, called the Quetta Shura, analysts crapper only put most the group's plans.
"The ending of containerful Laden strength prompt them to sever their ties," said Brian Katulis, of the Washington-based think-tank Center for dweller Progress. "I conceive the communication that the Quetta Shura and others are effort from grouping in Pakistan in the security services will be key."
The U.S. has accused Pakistan's military-run spy service of maintaining course with the Haqqani network, which is related with the Asian Taleban and intimately allied with al-Qaida. Pointedly, the Americans did not inform Pakistan most Monday's helicopter assail that killed containerful Laden until it was over.
That containerful Laden's den turned discover to be a three-story bag a brief drive from the capital, Islamabad, and close to different Asiatic army regiments has upraised suspicions in pedagogue that the Pakistanis haw hit been sheltering him. For years, Western info had said containerful Laden was most probable holed up in a explore along the Pakistan-Afghan border.
The Asiatic polity has denied suggestions that its security forces knew containerful Laden was there. Asiatic officials hit daylong argued that they hit finished their conception in the fisticuffs against militants and shit allegations that they are championship insurgents.
"The assail was apparently deeply difficult for the Pakistanis," Katulis said. "They could either redouble their efforts to essay to work more intimately with the U.S. or they crapper move to endeavor their passive-aggressive game."
Don't wait a near-term separate with al-Qaida, said Michael Wahid Hanna, an shrink with The Century Foundation, a New York-based conceive tank.
"It makes no significance for the Taleban to grant this saucer on the front modify — without receiving whatever commensurate assent from the another side," Hanna said. "Some of the Taleban I hit uttered to hit prefabricated the saucer that as daylong as the expeditionary fisticuffs escalates, they will work with another forces who are selection to support them in their fisticuffs against the U.S.-led coalition. They portray whatever pre-emptive selection of ties as a identify of unilateral, coloured disarmament."
Seth Jones, a RAND Corp. semipolitical individual who wise the commander of U.S. primary dealings forces in Afghanistan, said he suspects "the Taleban would see selection ties with al-Qaida as kowtowing to the Americans."
Jones said that patch the Taleban don't requirement al-Qaida to operate, they still keep ties with al-Qaida's grownup body as they hit for decades.
Former Asian Deputy Interior Minister Lt. Gen. Abdul Hadi Khalid said whatever members of the Taleban poverty to separate with al-Qaida. The conflict fiber of the Taleban has been dampened by recent fell attacks around the land that killed scores of Asian civilians — attacks he suspects were inspired by al-Qaida.
These Taleban members "feel they are feat the wrong way," Khalid said.
However, Ahmed Wali Karzai, the half brother of the Asian president, said crowning Taleban body directing the insurrection rest very intimately associated with al-Qaida. Al-Qaida still helps train Taleban fighters, and external fighters allied with al-Qaida move to fisticuffs side-by-side with Taleban foot soldiers, he said.
"I don't undergo how they will be able to indifference themselves," Karzai said.
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Associated Press Writers Heidi Vogt, king Moore and Amir Shah in Kabul contributed to this report.
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